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Here is the classic Monty Hall problem: Before you are three closed doors. Behind one of the doors is an all-expense paid trip to anywhere in the world.
Here is the classic Monty Hall problem: Before you are three closed doors. Behind one of the doors is an all-expense paid trip to anywhere in the world. Behind each of the other two doors is a postage stamp. First, you select a door. I won't open that one, but I will open one of the other two. In fact, behind one or both of the other doors is a stamp, and I'll open one that shows you a stamp. Next you have a choice of staying with your original choice or switching to the other door that is still closed. I'll open the door you finally settle on and you can take what is behind it. What is the best strategy, to stay or switch, or does it matter? Extensions of the problem and a complete solution are included. This mathematically rich problem was originally developed for the Project Discovery Mathematics by Inquiry institutes for middle grades teachers taught in 1992 - 1994 at Ohio State University. Project Discovery was co-funded by the Ohio Board of Regents and the Statewide Systemic Initiative (SSI) program of the National Science Foundation. (author/sw)
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| Mathematics Academic Content Standards |
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| Data Analysis and Probability Standard |  |
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| Benchmarks (8 - 10) |
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| J. | Compute probabilities of compound events, independent events, and simple dependent events. |
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| Grade Level Indicators (Grade 9) |
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| 9. | Identify situations involving independent and dependent events, and explain differences between and common misconceptions about probabilities associated with those events. |
| 10. | Use theoretical and experimental probability, including simulations or random numbers, to estimate probabilities and to solve problems dealing with uncertainty; e.g., compound events, independent events, simple dependent events. |
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| Grade Level Indicators (Grade 12) |
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| 6. | Use theoretical or experimental probability, including simulations, to determine probabilities in real-world problem situations involving uncertainty, such as mutually exclusive events, complementary events and conditional probability. |
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| Mathematical Processes Standard |  |
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| Benchmarks (8 - 10) |
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| B. | Apply mathematical knowledge and skills routinely in other content areas and practical situations. |
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| Principles and Standards for School Mathematics |
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| Data Analysis and Probability Standard |  |
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| Understand and apply basic concepts of probability |
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| Expectations (9 - 12) |
| understand the concepts of conditional probability and independent events; |
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| RESOURCE TYPE |
| Rich Problem, Inquiry, or Exploration |
| STANDARDS ALIGNMENT |
| Grades 9 - 12 |
| TOPICS |
Mathematics -- Probability |
| KEYWORDS |
| conditional probability |
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Author: Robert B. Brown Publisher: Ohio Resource Center
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